Luka Doncic is a prolific scorer, an obvious statement after he just won the league’s scoring title this season, which included a 73-point masterpiece against the Atlanta Hawks. Despite Doncic’s scoring prowess, his pass has felt like what has defined the Mavericks success over the years.
Doncic can hit any shot presented to him, but his ability to also make every pass as well is what can make the Mavericks so dangerous at times. It’s gotten to the point that Doncic seemingly relishes the double-teams, a way for him to continue to break the balance on the floor with precise, needle-threading passes. If Doncic is racking up double-digit assists.
Consider this: when Doncic has had 10 or more assists in his NBA career, the Mavericks are 95-46, according to statmuse.com. When he has less than 10, the team is 132-127. When he has five or fewer? The Mavericks are a losing team, with a 39-45 record. That trend continued as Doncic had one assist in Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics Thursday night, and the Mavericks got rolled. It was only the fourth time Doncic has ever had one or fewer assists in a game he didn’t get injured in, and two of them were in his rookie season.
For at least a year or two now, the most “optimal” way to guard Doncic has been to play 2-on-2 with him in the pick and roll, stay home on shooters, do not trap or blitz, and live with the results. Let Doncic take contested floaters, midrange jumpers, or hell, give him some layups vs giving role players wide open threes or his centers easy lob dunks. The thought process is that while the Mavericks new-and-improved roster certainly has more talent and offensive juice than prior versions of Doncic’s Mavericks teams, the role players still aren’t the types of players to beat you in one-on-one or most closeout situations. Stay home on those players, cut off their oxygen, give Doncic no where to pass, and hope he can’t outscore you. It’s not an easy strategy to pull off, as being comfortable with a player scoring 30 (or 40, or 50, or 60) or more points isn’t something professional coaches want to allow.
There’s a point of pride that’s natural, where even if a coach understands the assignment, seeing Doncic heat up can change everything. We’ve seen it in these playoffs, with the Clippers, Thunder, and Timberwolves all finding some success letting Doncic work without help defense in the pick and roll, only to get nervous, switch assignments, and watch as the Mavericks role players break the defense with open threes and lobs after the defense decides to put two on the ball.
